ISM 'prices paid' hints commodities may have run too far
At current levels, commodity prices will have priced-in an ISM Prices Paid Index >90 by the end of Q1. >90 has only happened 2X: -June & July 2008 Back then, commodities fell 53% over the next 6 months. ISM New Orders minus Inventories peaked 6M ago. Prices usually follow.
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