In the day ahead I’m looking out for are UK unemployment and German ZEW data, earnings from Softbank as well as who Joe Biden picks as his VP running mate.
The UK unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.2% from 3.9% with another 10,000 Brits signing on to claim jobless insurance in July. It’s always a big datapoint for UK markets but the government furlough scheme means the numbers are a bit screwy. The situation is almost definitely a lot worse than is data will show. The pound-dollar exchange rate is grappling with a double top at 1.32.
You could say German investors are feeling ‘less worse’ about the current situation but more importantly the ‘economic sentiment’ looking forwards is starting to moderate with a reading of 58 expected for August versus the 59.3 in July.
SoftBank shares are up a mind-blowing 150% from March. That’s impressive because things were looking very shaky after the failed IPO of WeWork and the firm reporting its worst every quarterly loss in Q1. Between you and me I think this thing is a house of card waiting to come down but I don’t claim to know what triggers the collapse. Recent IPOs have gone better- notably the T-Mobile stake sale, buybacks have helped the upward push in the shares and confidence in maverick founder Masayoshi Son is back.
It’s expected Joe Biden will pick his Democratic VP candidate this week, so it may not be Tuesday and he may have already done it by the time you’re watching this video. He has said he will choose a woman - and there’s speculation it could be a woman of colour.
Kamala Harris, the California Senator and former Presidential candidate is easily the bookie’s favourite, followed by Susan Rice - the former UN ambassador who might get the nod because Biden knows her quite well already.
It’s hard to see investors getting spooked by any of the candidates unless hard left winger and tax the rich proponent Elizabeth Warren was the surprise pick.