China & US retail sales & Rosneft, Macau casinos

In the day ahead China and the United States release retail sales data, there is also Eurozone Q2 GDP and Russian oil giant Rosneft, Sands China and Wynn Macau report Q2 results.


It’s also the Assumption Day holiday but no major markets are shut for it.
Worth noting that a US stimulus deal seems a bit dead in the water so no announcement is likely today but we are still at record highs in the S&P 500 so markets don’t seem bothered for now.


China retail sales are expected to tick back into positive territory in July with a reading of 0.1% year-over-year- meaning the Chinese are buying a tenth of a percent more than they did at the same time last year - which is not bad considering the situation at hand.
China Industrial production is expected to show 5.1% annual growth up from 4.8% prior. Worth noting that Chinese shares are going nowhere at the moment - with the Shanghai Composite still under the 3400 peak made a month ago. And the yuan has sat around 6.95 to the dollar for a couple of weeks.


We’ll get an update on Eurozone GDP, which a couple of week ago we learnt dropped 12.1% in Q2 taking Europe into a recession. A slight improvement to 12% is expected.
US retail sales will be the big one for the day - a good result would be a trifecta for the US economy in July - after unemployment and inflation data both surprised on the upside in the last week. We’re expecting 1.9%, down from 7.5% in June.


If we look at US analyst earnings revisions within the S&P 500 since Q2 earnings season started- Energy has seen the most negative revisions. That is unlikely to be any different in Russia when Rosneft reports today.


I’ve talked a bit about casinos and Macau recently. The 2 opposing things to consider here are that the pandemic and travel restrictions from the mainland have wiped out almost all revenues from Macau Casinos BUT the gambling at these places is normally out of this world that these companies are normally money-making machines and have big cash piles - so should be able to weather the storm. FYI Sands China has the ticker 1928 and Wynn Macau is 1128 in Hong Kong.


Thanks for reading - have a good day trading. And make sure to sign up to the MorningFlow newsletter so you don’t miss the next one.

 

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