Swiss unemployment & Barrick Gold, Novavax

In the day ahead there is China inflation data, Switzerland’s unemployment rate and earnings from Barrick Gold, Marriott and Novavax.

The picture in China seems to be that as the recovery progresses, consumer spending is levelling off a bit while manufacturing is gradually coming back online. Expectations are for July CPI to slip to 2.3% from 2.5% and PPI to pickup from negative -3% to negative 1.9%.

In case you missed it - Swiss unemployment unexpected fell in June as the economy reopened. Economists are predicting another decline this month to 3.1% from 3.3%. That may seem like very low numbers given the current situation. There is a little statistical chicanery going on here because Switzerland’s official unemployment figures include only those registered as unemployed, which excludes those who are available and seeking work but have not registered. Actually - In June 36.7% more people were looking for work than at the end of 2019.

We’ve got some good contrasts as normal in company earnings. We’d expect earnings from Barrick Gold - the world’s second largest gold miner to impressive given what the gold price has been doing and guidance for the current quarter should be red hot too given the record move above $2000. Barrick shares are up 58% this year.

I think it’s literally impossible for NovaVax earnings to live up to the 4,108% share price rise this year - but they probably don’t have to because it’s all about their coronavirus vaccine.

Then on the other side of the scale we have Marriot Hotels, where results are expected to be butt ugly given what the stay home orders have done to travel and leisure. Last week rival Hyatt reported a devastating 80% drop in Q2 revenues. BUT the outlook can only be brighter for Q3 with occupancy rates likely much higher by July.

Thanks for reading! 


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