A preview of the news, earnings, and economic data to expect in the week ahead. This week includes Q3 earnings (highlights including Tesla and Netflix), China releases 3rd quarter GDP data, the UK, the Eurozone and Canada release CPI data and we will monitor the break higher in copper prices and what it implies for the global recovery.
What happened this week
5-day performance as of Friday October 15, 4pm CET
Source: Finviz.com
It was déjà vu this week with stock markets repeating last week’s pattern of starting off weak and reversing the losses in the second half of the week. The Dow Jones importantly crossed back over the psychological 35,000 mark in a sign of strength that would suggest the correction may well be over.
Other parts of the world also saw their stock indices rebound with for once the UK’s FTSE 100 a top performer thanks to the proliferation of commodity stocks in the index. The FTSE reached a new post-pandemic high. Interestingly, given the sharp decline in the Japanese yen, the rally in the Nikkei was somewhat lacklustre.
There was something of a rotation across commodity markets with copper breaking out while crude oil markets steadied at their highs and gold hit $1800 per oz but pulled back thereafter.
The dollar fell back from its 1-year peak thanks to a rebound in the euro, while the British pound hit its highest in nearly a month and the Aussie dollar as good as reversed its entire September decline.
Top 5 stories for the coming week:
The 5 events, news stories or market price action that could shape the week ahead:
1. Tesla earnings
Despite headlines about Cathie Wood and other high profile investors selling the stock, Tesla has rallied back up to $800 before the release of Q3 results. The optimism comes as delivery data showed Tesla seems to have overcome the global chip shortage that has hampered other carmakers. A good set of results to match the deliveries could see TSLA testing its record high near $900.
2. Netflix earnings
Judging by the price action in the run up to Q3 earnings, investors appear happy to look through the likely post-lockdown decline in subscriber growth and reappreciate the dominant position Netflix holds in online streaming, despite new rivals including Disney+. The shares are at a record high, reaching $640 heading into Q3 results.
3. China GDP
The consensus expectation is for China to have achieved 5.2% y/y growth over Q3. That’s sharply down from 7.9% in Q2 but the average of the two is in keeping with typical China GDP growth targets. Given the rising inflation, investors will want to see growth from major economies like China hold up to put to bed fears of stagflation. Should these numbers disappoint, stagflationary jitters could ripple out through risky assets like equities.
4. Global Inflation
US CPI growth returned to a 13-year high in September at 5.4% y/y. The supply chain bottlenecks and disruptions that are causing the higher prices in the US are part of a global phenomenon so we can expect to see similar affects in the UK, Europe and Canada when data comes out this week. Central banks are beginning the process of tapering bond purchases so these inflation figures will be a good gauge for which of them begin raising rates first. Recent speculation suggests the Bank of England is near the top of the list.
5. Copper breakout
The breakout on display in the chart below, powered by the double digit weekly gain seen in our performance table would appear to show Copper is ending its rut. Strength in ‘Dr Copper’ is normally associated with expectations for a strong global economy - perhaps markets are pricing in good things from China data this week ?
Source: The Market Ear
Economic Calendar:
|
TIME (GMT) |
Country |
Event |
CONSENSUS |
PREVIOUS |
Mon 18 |
02:00 |
CNY |
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q3) |
5.20% |
7.90% |
|
02:00 |
CNY |
Industrial Production (YoY)(Sep) |
4% |
5.30% |
|
02:00 |
CNY |
Retail Sales (YoY)(Sep) |
3% |
2.50% |
Wed 20 |
01:30 |
CNY |
PBoC Interest Rate Decision |
3.85% |
3.85% |
|
06:00 |
GBP |
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Sep) |
- |
3.20% |
|
09:00 |
EUR |
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Sep) |
3.40% |
3.40% |
|
12:30 |
CAD |
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Sep) |
- |
4.10% |
Thur 21 |
08:00 |
EUR |
Markit PMI Composite(Oct) PREL |
- |
56.2 |
Fri 22 |
06:00 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM)(Sep) |
- |
-0.90% |
|
08:00 |
EUR |
IFO – Expectations(Oct) |
- |
97.3 |
|
08:30 |
GBP |
Markit Services PMI(Oct) PREL |
- |
55.4 |
|
12:30 |
CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM)(Aug) |
- |
-0.60% |
Source: FXStreet.com
Corporate earnings:
TIME |
COMPANY |
EVENT |
Oct-18 |
Charles Schwab |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-18 |
Philips N.V. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-18 |
State Street Corp. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-18 |
Sandvik AB |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Johnson & Johnson |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Procter & Gamble Co. |
Q1 2022 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Netflix Inc. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Philip Morris Inc. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Bank of New York Mellon |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Telefon AB L.M.Ericsson (A) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Ericsson (Telefon AB L.M.Ericsson) (B) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Travelers Inc (Travelers Companies) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Deutsche Börse AG |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-19 |
Nestle India Ltd Dematerialised |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
Tesla |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
Verizon Inc. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
Abbott Laboratories |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
NextEra Energy Inc |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
IBM Corp. (International Business Machines) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
Biogen Inc |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
EQT AB Registered Shs |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
Kinder Morgan Inc (P) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
Discover Financial Services |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
PPG Industries Inc. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
Nasdaq Inc |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
Las Vegas Sands Corp. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-20 |
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (A) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
PayPal Inc |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Danaher Corp. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Intel Corp. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
AT&T Inc. (AT & T Inc.) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
SAP SE |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Blackstone |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Union Pacific Corp. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Snap Inc. (Snapchat) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Nordea Bank Abp Registered Shs |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Volvo AB (A) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
NHN Corp |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Volvo AB (B) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Barclays plc |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
SVB Financial Group Shs |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Southwest Airlines Co. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-21 |
Swedbank AB |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-22 |
Reliance Industries Ltd Dematerialised |
Q2 2022 Earnings |
Oct-22 |
Honeywell |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-22 |
American Express Co. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-22 |
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-22 |
Roper Industries Inc. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-22 |
Sika AG |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-22 |
Schlumberger N.V. (Ltd.) |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-22 |
China Telecom Corp. Ltd. |
Q3 2021 Earnings |
Oct-23 |
ICICI Bank Ltd |
Q2 2022 Earnings |
Source: markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar
Good luck trading this week!