Here are the top ten market moves from the last five days: week ended Friday September 17, 2021.
Monday, September 13th
Graphic 1: Bitcoin readying a bullish 'Golden cross' pattern
The most widely-watched moving average crossover signal in technical analysis. It shows the short term trend (50 DMA) leading the longer term trend (200 DMA) higher and back into an uptrend.
Graphic 2: Why investors are bearish. Reasons #1-3.
(1)A record monthly equity issuance ? $5bn of issuance in Europe occurred Friday. September is shaping up to be one of the busiest months in history
(2)Corporate buyback blackout window--Corporates are expected to be the largest buyer of stocks in 2H and corporates have significantly offset issuance. See FAAMNG massive outperformance Wednesday.
(3) September 16th is the highest point of the day-by-day peak for the month, before closings starts to fall.
Tuesday, September 14th
Graphic 3: China's regulatory cycle tightens at new all time high
The latest regulatory tightening cycle is unprecedented in terms of duration, intensity, scope, and velocity (of announcement) according to the POE Regulation Proxy. @TME
Graphic 4: We're keeping a closer look at ETH; ETH is key to NFT hot run.
The NFT industry has exploded in popularity this year. There was more than $2.5 billion in sales volume during the first half of 2021 and it has only accelerated since then. Here you can see the weekly NFT buyers through the end of June consisted of both primary and secondary market participants. But all records are made to be broken. OpenSea, the most popular NFT marketplace, saw more than $3 billion in NFT sales volume just during the month of August. @TME
Wednesday, September 15th
Graphic 5: Going long on EM now as underperformance persists?
This year’s underperformance of EM vs DM equities looks rather extreme by historical standards which could offer an entry point for a medium-term OW in EM vs. DM . Indeed, two previous episodes of close to 20% EM vs. DM equity underperformance, during the second half of 2015 and during April-Oct 2018, were followed by 10-15% EM outperformance in subsequent months. @TME
Graphic 6: UK 5yr breakeven inflation rate hits record high
This series is a measure of expected inflation (on average) over the five-year period that begins five years from today.
For the UK, its the highest since Lehman...
Thursday, September 16th
Graphic 7: Owners equivalent rent lags housing prices
Although some expected a much larger jump in OER (Owners Equivalent Rent), the CPI component tends to lag housing prices. We see much higher OER (over 20% of CPI) in the coming months. The impact of the massive rise in US house prices has only just started to show up. @zerohedge
Graphic 8: Power price surge could hurt margins and slow European equity rally
Gas and power prices plunged in Europe on signs this year’s relentless rally is prompting energy-intensive industries to curb consumption at a time when supplies started to improve. Still, worries are growing that a surge in the cost of gas and electricity will pressure net profit margins for European companies that are at the highest since 2008. @Bloomberg
Friday, September 17th
Graphic 9: US retail numbers surprise
The Us.Consumers helped retail sales post a big beat by advancing 0.7% in August, signaling a strong appetite for goods even as delta and supply chain challenges pose issues. @Bloomberg
Graphic 10: Global growth is the thing that is 'transitory'
PMI surveys conducted by JP Morgan show output measures rolling over back to normal levels following the sharp downturn and upturns since the pandemic.