October’s optimistic market mood continued Monday as investors priced in a clear cut US election result and new fiscal stimulus before or soon after.
MARKETS
China stocks boom
Chinese stocks led gains across Asia as more local investors got onboard the idea of more favourable treatment from the United States in a Biden presidency. Action from the PBOC to curb strength in the yuan by removing some restrictions on selling the currency short seemed to bolster confidence.
UK introduces 3-tier lockdown restrictions
European stocks were mostly higher with the UK FTSE 100 the notable exception to the rule. The Boris Johnson government introducing a new 3-tier system for lockdown restrictions was interpreted as confusing and an unnecessary drag on the economic recovery. UK stocks most sensitive to the economic reopening including pub-owner Whitbread retailers Next and Primark-owner ABF were the biggest drags on the index.
US tech stocks lead Monday gains
The launch of the first 5G iPhone tomorrow as well as Amazon Prime Day got the juices flowing for tech investors. The Nasdaq index leaped 2% in early trading on Wall Street with the S&P 500 and Dow also making solid gains.
Oil price drops after Norwegian strike ends
The price of oil had been artificially supported in the last week by strikes in Norway and possibility that a quarter of the country’s oil output could be curtailed. Unions and oil companies struck a deal this weekend and prices are coming back to earth, albeit within the trading range of the past few months.
Goldman: bullish silver, bearish on the dollar
Goldman Sachs says dollar-positive outcomes like a Trump victory and delayed vaccine have 'low odds' and are recommending short positions on the US dollar. The investment bank puts the chance of a Democratic ‘blue sweep’ at 60%. In a separate prediction, Goldman says dollar weakness and a surge in demand for the industrial use of silver in solar panels will push up the price of silver to $30 per oz.
DAY AHEAD
First Q3 Bank earnings
JP Morgan Chase and Citibank are first to report Q3 results today. Click here to read US mega banks Q3 earnings preview
Amazon Prime Day
Amazon delayed its Prime Day due to coronavirus restrictions in July but the new two day event will now take place starting tomorrow (Oct 13 & 14). Each year the firm racks up a new record in sales over the day and with consumers in the habit of shopping online in the pandemic more than ever, this year is likely to be no exception. Amazon stock was up 2% in early Wall Street trading to make a fresh record high.
New Apple iPhone (12) launch
Supply chain issues meant Apple delayed the launch of its new iPhone 12. Now its happening tomorrow at 10am Pacific time. Aside from a few extra bells and whistles - the big selling point for upgrading to the new model will be its 5G connectivity. Apple shares were up 5% in early trading on Monday, which sets a high bar for Apple to exceed expectations. The shares are about $10 below all-time highs.
