WEEK AHEAD: Fed Minutes, RBNZ & Retail News

A preview of the news, earnings and economic data to expcet in the week ahead.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes of its last meeting. While that is viewed as old news, the release will be highly scrutinized for more details on the “tapering” process. The Fed’s move to slow and ultimately end its bond buying is important since it is the first major step away from easy policy and a step toward interest rate hikes.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold an event for educators and students on the central bank and education Tuesday. Fed officials will be at their annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from Aug. 26 through Aug. 28, and tapering the $120 billion a month bond-buying program is expected to be a big topic on their agenda.

Two central banks meet, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank, the Norwegian central bank. Both are at the forefront of major central banks shifting monetary policy from supporting growth to achieving their mandates. Recall that a couple years ago, the New Zealand parliament gave the RBNZ a maximum employment mandate alongside price stability. There seems little holding it back from hiking. Unemployment in Q2 fell to 4.0%, where it was in Q4 19, and price pressures are accelerating to move above 3%. The swaps market appears to have a 25 bp rate hike discounted for next week and another 25 bp hike before the end of the year.

A flurry of retail news in the week ahead will put market focus on the consumer, the driver of 70% of the U.S. economy. The Census Bureau will release July’s monthly retail sales report Tuesday morning, and Dow Jones forecast is for a decline of 0.2%. That same day, retail heavyweights Walmart and Home Depot report earnings. Macy’s, Target, TJX and Lowe’s are also among retailers reporting in the coming week.

CALENDAR

MONDAY

Earnings

Tencent Music, Roblox

Macro

N/A

Monetary Policy

RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

TUESDAY

Earnings

Walmart, Home Depot, Agilent, La-Z-Boy, BHP Group

Macro

US: Retail Sales, US Industrial Production

Monetary Policy

US Fed Chair Powell Speech (online)

 

WEDNESDAY

Earnings

Target, Nvidia, Lowe’s, Cisco Systems, Tencent, TJX, Bath and Body Works, Analog Devices

Macro

Europe: UK CPI

US: Canada CPI, Crude oil inventories

Monetary Policy

RBNZ Meeting

FOMC Meeting minutes

 

THURSDAY

Earnings

Applied Materials, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, Petco, Estee Lauder, Kohl’s, Ross Stores, Adtalem

Macro

Asia: Australia Employment Report

US: Philadelphia Fed Index, Initial jobless claims

Monetary Policy

N/A


FRIDAY

Earnings

Deere, Foot Locker, Buckle

Macro

Europe: UK Retail Sales

US: Canada Retail Sales

Monetary Policy

N/A

 

Sources: Investing.com, CNBC. Bloomberg

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