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Semis, should we be worried ?

The semi-stocks have suffered losses year to far due to a variety of worries, including those about China, cyclicality, interest rates, supply chains, and export control. However, the negativity surrounding semiconductors peaked around the middle of October. The SMH ETF, which monitors the sector, has increased 25% at that time. Is the bottom in for the semis?

Semis, should we be worried ?

A Rising Chance the USD Correction Becomes a Reversal

The Dollar Index has fallen over 8% from the multi-decade highs printed in September, moving from around $114 to $105. As we round out the year, traders are now questioning whether the downturn marks the start of a reversal lower, or if this is simply a correction within the longer-term bull trend. 

A Rising Chance the USD Correction Becomes a Reversal

Stocks

Semis, should we be worried ?

The semi-stocks have suffered losses year to far due to a variety of worries, including those about China, cyclicality, interest rates, supply chains, and export control. However, the negativity surrounding semiconductors peaked around the middle of October. The SMH ETF, which monitors the sector, has increased 25% at that time. Is the bottom in for the semis?

Semis, should we be worried ?

Thanksgiving: inflation will be on the menu

It's almost time to start preparing your Thanksgiving meal for next week, and if you're hosting, brace yourself for high food expenditures. What effect will inflation have on your Thanksgiving shopping budget this year?

Thanksgiving: inflation will be on the menu

Crypto

FTX — destroying trust in what is supposed to be trustless

After a tumultuous few days FTX looks to be facing imminent collapse, the poster boy of the crypto world has almost overnight become the pariah, while almost single handedly setting the industry back years by destroying trust in what is trustless. It is worth highlighting a key point in the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper — “making payments over a communications channel without a trusted party”. There is nothing trustless in a centralised exchange, history seems to be repeating itself.

FTX — destroying trust in what is supposed to be trustless

Ethereum Staking Yields

On September 15th, Ethereum transitioned from a Proof of Work (PoW) network to a Proof of Stake (PoS). This change to PoS means that consensus is now derived from a randomly selected group of validators instead of based on hash power from physical miners. In this report, we will focus on the rewards portion of the equation — where the rewards come from and estimate an annual percentage rate (APR) that stakers can expect. With PoS, instead of competing and solving a mathematic puzzle, validators must acquire ETH and then lock their ETH away in a contract, otherwise known as staking. Among the stakers, the creator of the next block is randomly chosen with the chances of being chosen to increase based on how much ETH one has staked. Stakers who complete consensus tasks are rewarded with ETH but if a participant acts dishonestly or is offline for too long, a portion of their staked funds is slashed.

Ethereum Staking Yields

Macro

Spotlight on consumers as we approach Black Friday

Inflation, rising interest rates, and falling stock prices have added pressure on the consumer. Could Black Friday sales offer investors clues about what to expect of the holiday shopping?

Spotlight on consumers as we approach Black Friday

MonthlyFlow - November 2022

 Pause and assess Any indication of a pause in hikes, especially from the Fed, should boost markets further Sentiment is extremely negative, which could support the upward move Softness in labor and inflation data would be key for investor sentiment

MonthlyFlow - November 2022

Asset allocation

MonthlyFlow - November 2022

 Pause and assess Any indication of a pause in hikes, especially from the Fed, should boost markets further Sentiment is extremely negative, which could support the upward move Softness in labor and inflation data would be key for investor sentiment

MonthlyFlow - November 2022

MonthlyFlow - October 2022

       Is a bottom near?: Markets continue to worry about overtightening and recession Sentiment is extremely negative, which might suggest the downside is more limited Disinflation should boost sentiment, but it could take time

MonthlyFlow - October 2022
LiveWire

1 minute ago

#Nasdaq holds stead ahead of #Jobs report $QQQ #trading #technicals #forex

The Nasdaq is holding steady ahead of a key US jobs market report with the unemployment rates and Nonfarm Payrolls. A weaker jobs market could be positive for stocks as traders assess the likelihood of a Fed 'pivot'. 

19 hours ago

#PCE comes softer than expected #inflation #stocks #macro #Fed #trading

Markets are buoyant with recovering risk sentiment since Fed Chair Powell's speech last night in which he emphasized the Fed will be careful not to overtighten and will likely slow down the pace of rate hikes. US PCE, the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation came softer than expected, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will 'pivot' sooner than later, given the recent data that points towards a decelerating pace of inflation. 

23 hours ago

#EUR advances, now near 5-month highs #fx #fed #trading

EURUSD is once again near its 5-month high, making another attempt to break above the 1.0485 -1.0500 resistance level. The uptick in sentiment comes after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in comments at the Brookings Institution that the central bank could begin moderating its pace of rate hikes as soon as December

2 days ago

#US economy grows stronger than expected #gdp #trading

Stocks are under pressure following the release of key US economic data, which indicate growth above expectations. US GDP grew by 2.9% in the 3rd quarter (vs 2.7% forecasted). The Core PCE Prix index, which is closely watched by the Fed, was also slightly higher than estimated, coming at 4.6% (vs 4.5% consensus). Elsewhere, oil prices are edging higher as the economic data suggest demand is still holding well.

2 days ago

#EURUSD rises on weaker German jobs report #macro #germany #trading #forex #Nasdaq #Euro

The euro is rebounding versus the dollar in light of slightly weaker German unemployment data. This suggests that as the economy decelerates and if it does begin to very meaningfully deteriorate, not only inflation should come down more rapidly, but central banks may end up being forced to support the economy instead of restraining it with interest rate hikes and QE deleveraging. The bad news is 'good news' for now, helping risk assets recover slightly. The Nasdaq is up 0.4% in pre-market ahead of key US macro data and Fed Chair Powell's speech later in the day. 

Technology

Semis, should we be worried ?

The semi-stocks have suffered losses year to far due to a variety of worries, including those about China, cyclicality, interest rates, supply chains, and export control. However, the negativity surrounding ...

Semis, should we be worried ?

Fast coffee: Should Nespresso be fearful of CoffeeB?

Swiss brand CoffeeB, developed by supermarket chain Migros, is making single-use coffee fully compostable via its pressed coffee balls invention. Will consumers abandon their Nespresso machines?

Fast coffee: Should Nespresso be fearful of CoffeeB?

Virtual YouTubers: ANYCOLOR stock up 620%

Japanese entertainment company ANYCOLOR provides a new magical experience, fuelled by creativity and technology. Are virtual YouTubers and pop-idol culture here to stay?

Virtual YouTubers: ANYCOLOR stock up 620%

Commodities

Gold jumps to one month high

Gold has been trading sideways or down for almost two years, while inflation is at multi-decade highs. Why are safe haven investments and so-called inflation hedging assets performing poorly while global inflation is ...

Gold jumps to one month high

The Nat Gas Sell Off Looks Overdone

In the commodities space, dominating trader chat heading into the final months of the year is the reversal in the price of Nat Gas (Natural Gas). 

The Nat Gas Sell Off Looks Overdone

Crude Oil Starts Q4 Well - Is the Bottom in?

Volatility is one of the main reasons traders are drawn to trading oil. ‘Black gold’, as it is often referred to in trading circles, is notorious for outsized price swings when compared with more typically stable assets such as ...

Crude Oil Starts Q4 Well - Is the Bottom in?

Forex

A Rising Chance the USD Correction Becomes a Reversal

The Dollar Index has fallen over 8% from the multi-decade highs printed in September, moving from around $114 to $105. As we round out the year, traders are now questioning whether the downturn marks the start of a reversal lower, or if this is ...

A Rising Chance the USD Correction Becomes a Reversal

USDJPY at 150. What can stop the yen demise?

Intervention from the Bank of Japan has so far done nothing to stop the slide in the Japanese yen this year. Will the central bankers try to intervene again or must they finally pivot to rate hikes?

USDJPY at 150. What can stop the yen demise?

Is Parity Calling for GBPUSD after Mini-Budget Volatility?

It’s been a wild old ride for the British Pound over the last fortnight. It has been brought on by a loss of confidence in the new British government and corresponding confidence that the Bank of England can save the day. 

Is Parity Calling for GBPUSD after Mini-Budget Volatility?

Bonds

How are central banks affecting your mortgage?

Wild currency moves and rapidly rising interest rates have added to the economic challenges consumers face. But how exactly do central banks affect your mortgage and what does the future hold? And as a homeowner, ...

How are central banks affecting your mortgage?

Equities can’t shrug off bond yields dominance

The rise in global bond yields, fuelled by rising interest rates, has become one of the central themes affecting stock markets. This week’s Jackson Hole Symposium sets the stage for bond market action for the rest of 2022.

Equities can’t shrug off bond yields dominance

“TINA is dead.” Or not.

The stock market had an epic run after the 2008-09 financial crisis, thanks in part to rock-bottom interest rates, which encouraged investors to pile into equities as “There Is No Alternative” (TINA). Now that the Fed ...

“TINA is dead.” Or not.
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Futures

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LiveWire

1 minute ago

#Nasdaq holds stead ahead of #Jobs report $QQQ #trading #technicals #forex

The Nasdaq is holding steady ahead of a key US jobs market report with the unemployment rates and Nonfarm Payrolls. A weaker jobs market could be positive for stocks as traders assess the likelihood of a Fed 'pivot'. 

19 hours ago

#PCE comes softer than expected #inflation #stocks #macro #Fed #trading

Markets are buoyant with recovering risk sentiment since Fed Chair Powell's speech last night in which he emphasized the Fed will be careful not to overtighten and will likely slow down the pace of rate hikes. US PCE, the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation came softer than expected, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will 'pivot' sooner than later, given the recent data that points towards a decelerating pace of inflation. 

23 hours ago

#EUR advances, now near 5-month highs #fx #fed #trading

EURUSD is once again near its 5-month high, making another attempt to break above the 1.0485 -1.0500 resistance level. The uptick in sentiment comes after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in comments at the Brookings Institution that the central bank could begin moderating its pace of rate hikes as soon as December