Analyses de marchés

Apple revenues, profit, iPhone sales, and services all beat analyst forecasts for Apple's last quarter of 2022. The results are particularly encouraging as it shows Apple is navigating well the global shortage of microchips. Sales of the iPhone giant increased 11% to a record USD123.9 billion in the 3 last months of the year. Mac sales were up 12% and Iphone sales jumped 9%. Sales from services are up a gigantic 23%. Specifically in China, sales gained 20%, which is very encouraging for the tech giant to be performing well in this key growth region. Apple stock is up 4.5% today, but still about 10% lower from the start of the year.

Fed's closely watched inflation gauge hit the highest since the 1980s, but in line with estimates. More importantly, the Employment Cost Index rose less than expected 1% (vs. 1.2% expected) and lower than Q3's 1.5%,  providing some hope that inflation might be cooling down from here on. The yield on the 2-year fell 5bps following the report, and stock markets reacted positively, reversing morning session losses. 

As the economy recovers, tight job markets and persistent inflation has pushed central banks from many countries to start considering rising interest rates to prevent an inflation spiral. Following the Fed's meeting on Wednesday, markets are expecting now 4 and 5 rate hikes from BoE and the Fed respectively in 2022. However, the longer dated bond, which are used as proxy for growth by market participants, are lagging behind, showcasing investors concern over too much tightening from the central bankers. 

Energy prices are rocketing higher since the bottom of the pandemic area. Demand is very strong on the back of the rapid recovery in global economic activity, and in contrast supply is suffering from years long underinvestment in oil exploration and production. Adding to that the recent rising geopolitical tensions between US and Europe with an important oil exporter, Russia, leads Wall Street analysts and other energy institutions to expect supply to remain tight in coming years. Furthermore, the current low open interest on Brent indicates that the price of oil could very likely move higher.

The US tech heavy indice, the Nasdaq is 14.5% lower year to date. The momentum indicator RSI is close to 25, a level last reached during Spring 2020 following the Covid-19 market shock. On a technical levels the charts are badly damaged, with only around 17% of Nasdaq stocks above their respective 200-day moving averages. The last time this many stocks were below their averages was April 2020. From a fundamentals perspective, valuations have compressed and earnings reports are positive.