Latest insights
1 July 2022
Has the dollar finally topped?
The US Dollar has had a very busy year. Following an 11% rally off the initial lows in January, which saw the Dollar Index breaking out to multi-year highs, we then saw an almost 4% correction before the greenback found fresh demand and rallied a further 4.5% taking the Dollar Index up to further, fresh, multi-year highs.
30 June 2022
Oil giants turn to green technologies
The fight against climate change and government efforts to move towards green energy sources have brought green hydrogen technologies to the forefront. The war in Ukraine and Western efforts to accelerate decarbonisation have left the fossil fuel industry no choice but to adopt a greener roadmap. For example, the world's major oil companies are planning large-scale investments that would make green hydrogen a business of the future.
Stocks
27 June 2022
How to Trade a Dead Cat Bounce | Fading the Top
One of the surest signs that there is a bear market is when there's a dead cat bounce. Selling short at the end of one can provide quick trade setups when markets are in a downtrend.
22 June 2022
Could Elon Musk’s involvement with Twitter affect Tesla?
A lot has happened since Elon Musk offered to take Twitter private for USD44bn. Tesla investors are worried the deal could bring a dark cloud on Tesla, at a time when the billionaire’s focus may be critical to helping the automaker navigate the current crisis. What are the major changes Musk plans for Twitter, and could it harm Tesla shareholders?
Crypto
13 June 2022
The Bitcoin price outlook in a recession
With the recent CPI data from the United States, it would be easy to believe that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will be increasingly hawkish on interest rates, which in turn would be likely to weigh on Bitcoin prices (as they have become increasingly interest rate sensitive). However, due to the oil price and associated threat of recession, we believe the FED has limited firepower to raise interest rates. Furthermore, we believe interest rate expectations are already factored into the current Bitcoin price. The Luna and UST stablecoin crisis has piled further pressure on digital assets. While the value wiped out from the Terra ecosystem was substantial (over $40bn), it was not systemic to the wider crypto space, as it represented less than 2% of the stablecoin market.
18 May 2022
What now for crypto after the Luna / Terra crash?
The meltdown in Luna and its TerraUSD stablecoin brought chaos to crypto markets. This raises the question of whether stablecoins are understood and potentially offer a rare buying opportunity for ‘quality’ crypto assets.
Macro
29 June 2022
MonthlyFlow - July 2022
Markets remain laser-focused on inflation and ensuing tightening risks to growth A slowdown is starting but a recession should be avoided in the US and the global economy The short term might remain volatile, but longer-term entry points are starting to emerge
20 June 2022
Could gold have further room to run?
Gold prices started the year on a strong foot, along with oil prices outperforming all other asset classes in a turbulent market environment. However, six months later, there has been some mixed price action lately, if not some real weakness on the back of positive real yields in the US. Is the gold bull market over, or is there still some room for further gains?
Asset allocation
29 June 2022
MonthlyFlow - July 2022
Markets remain laser-focused on inflation and ensuing tightening risks to growth A slowdown is starting but a recession should be avoided in the US and the global economy The short term might remain volatile, but longer-term entry points are starting to emerge
25 May 2022
MonthlyFlow - June 2022
As bond markets move away from recession calls, equities take over There may be more pain ahead, but we should be getting closer to a bottom We remain constructive for the year, but the upsidecould take some time to materialize
LiveWire
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2 days ago
#Eurozone's Manufacturing #PMI lowest since Oct 2020 #trading
SToxx50 is paring early session losses this morning after hitting this year's lows. The rebound could be short-lived as sentiment is depressed. Eurozone's manufacturing PMI data for June came in at 52.1, the lowest reading since October 2020.
3 days ago
Fed's PCE softer than estimates #inflation #trading
Equity indices spiked after softer inflation data. Inflation in the US, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, stayed unchanged at 6.3% on a yearly basis in May. The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, declined to 4.7% in the same period from 4.9% in April. This print came in softer than expected (4.8%) and is the third favorable inflation reading in the last week.
3 days ago
#Bitcoin falls below USD19'000 #crypto 3 trading
Bitcoin is on track for its worst quarter in more than a decade, as more hawkish central banks and a string of high-profile crypto blowups hammer sentiment.
3 days ago
#S&P500 below the 3'800 level #stocks #trading
US and European shares slid this morning heading to post another month of decline (the 5th since the start of the year). Central banks' firm commitments to controlling rising inflation are rising risks of a sharp slowdown in the global economy. The fact that stocks have trouble holding steady despite falling Treasury yields suggests market dynamics are changing. In this environment, having protection by using put options could reduce downside risk.
4 days ago
#Stocks pare gains after US #GDP #PCE #trading
Real GDP in the United States fell by 1.6% at an annualized rate over the first three months of the year (vs 1.5% estimates). Softer household consumption expenditure was a big drag. Moreover, the price index PCE rose 7.1%, compared to an increase of 6.4% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the index rose 5.2%, compared to a 5% rise in the last quarter of 2021. Although this is backwards-looking data, it is still closely watched as it confirms the ongoing pressure on prices.
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2 days ago
#Eurozone's Manufacturing #PMI lowest since Oct 2020 #trading
SToxx50 is paring early session losses this morning after hitting this year's lows. The rebound could be short-lived as sentiment is depressed. Eurozone's manufacturing PMI data for June came in at 52.1, the lowest reading since October 2020.
3 days ago
Fed's PCE softer than estimates #inflation #trading
Equity indices spiked after softer inflation data. Inflation in the US, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, stayed unchanged at 6.3% on a yearly basis in May. The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, declined to 4.7% in the same period from 4.9% in April. This print came in softer than expected (4.8%) and is the third favorable inflation reading in the last week.
