Market Insights

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Has the dollar finally topped?

The US Dollar has had a very busy year. Following an 11% rally off the initial lows in January, which saw the Dollar Index breaking out to multi-year highs, we then saw an almost 4% correction before the greenback found fresh demand and rallied a further 4.5% taking the Dollar Index up to further, fresh, multi-year highs.

Has the dollar finally topped?

Oil giants turn to green technologies

The fight against climate change and government efforts to move towards green energy sources have brought green hydrogen technologies to the forefront. The war in Ukraine and Western efforts to accelerate decarbonisation have left the fossil fuel industry no choice but to adopt a greener roadmap. For example, the world's major oil companies are planning large-scale investments that would make green hydrogen a business of the future.

Oil giants turn to green technologies

Stocks

How to Trade a Dead Cat Bounce | Fading the Top

One of the surest signs that there is a bear market is when there's a dead cat bounce. Selling short at the end of one can provide quick trade setups when markets are in a downtrend.

How to Trade a Dead Cat Bounce | Fading the Top

Could Elon Musk’s involvement with Twitter affect Tesla?

A lot has happened since Elon Musk offered to take Twitter private for USD44bn. Tesla investors are worried the deal could bring a dark cloud on Tesla, at a time when the billionaire’s focus may be critical to helping the automaker navigate the current crisis. What are the major changes Musk plans for Twitter, and could it harm Tesla shareholders?

Could Elon Musk’s involvement with Twitter affect Tesla?

Crypto

The Bitcoin price outlook in a recession

With the recent CPI data from the United States, it would be easy to believe that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will be increasingly hawkish on interest rates, which in turn would be likely to weigh on Bitcoin prices (as they have become increasingly interest rate sensitive). However, due to the oil price and associated threat of recession, we believe the FED has limited firepower to raise interest rates. Furthermore, we believe interest rate expectations are already factored into the current Bitcoin price. The Luna and UST stablecoin crisis has piled further pressure on digital assets. While the value wiped out from the Terra ecosystem was substantial (over $40bn), it was not systemic to the wider crypto space, as it represented less than 2% of the stablecoin market.

The Bitcoin price outlook in a recession

What now for crypto after the Luna / Terra crash?

The meltdown in Luna and its TerraUSD stablecoin brought chaos to crypto markets. This raises the question of whether stablecoins are understood and potentially offer a rare buying opportunity for ‘quality’ crypto assets.

What now for crypto after the Luna / Terra crash?

Macro

MonthlyFlow - July 2022

Markets remain laser-focused on inflation and ensuing tightening risks to growth A slowdown is starting but a recession should be avoided in the US and the global economy The short term might remain volatile, but longer-term entry points are starting to emerge

MonthlyFlow - July 2022

Could gold have further room to run?

Gold prices started the year on a strong foot, along with oil prices outperforming all other asset classes in a turbulent market environment. However, six months later, there has been some mixed price action lately, if not some real weakness on the back of positive real yields in the US. Is the gold bull market over, or is there still some room for further gains?

Could gold have further room to run?

Asset allocation

MonthlyFlow - July 2022

Markets remain laser-focused on inflation and ensuing tightening risks to growth A slowdown is starting but a recession should be avoided in the US and the global economy The short term might remain volatile, but longer-term entry points are starting to emerge

MonthlyFlow - July 2022

MonthlyFlow - June 2022

As bond markets move away from recession calls, equities take over There may be more pain ahead, but we should be getting closer to a bottom We remain constructive for the year, but the upsidecould take some time to materialize

MonthlyFlow - June 2022
LiveWire

2 days ago

#Eurozone's Manufacturing #PMI lowest since Oct 2020 #trading

SToxx50 is paring early session losses this morning after hitting this year's lows. The rebound could be short-lived as sentiment is depressed. Eurozone's manufacturing PMI data for June came in at 52.1, the lowest reading since October 2020. 

3 days ago

Fed's PCE softer than estimates #inflation #trading

Equity indices spiked after softer inflation data. Inflation in the US, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, stayed unchanged at 6.3% on a yearly basis in May. The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, declined to 4.7% in the same period from 4.9% in April. This print came in softer than expected (4.8%) and is the third favorable inflation reading in the last week.

3 days ago

#Bitcoin falls below USD19'000 #crypto 3 trading

Bitcoin is on track for its worst quarter in more than a decade, as more hawkish central banks and a string of high-profile crypto blowups hammer sentiment.

3 days ago

#S&P500 below the 3'800 level #stocks #trading

US and European shares slid this morning heading to post another month of decline (the 5th since the start of the year). Central banks' firm commitments to controlling rising inflation are rising risks of a sharp slowdown in the global economy. The fact that stocks have trouble holding steady despite falling Treasury yields suggests market dynamics are changing. In this environment, having protection by using put options could reduce downside risk. 

4 days ago

#Stocks pare gains after US #GDP #PCE  #trading

Real GDP in the United States fell by 1.6% at an annualized rate over the first three months of the year (vs 1.5% estimates). Softer household consumption expenditure was a big drag. Moreover, the price index PCE rose 7.1%, compared to an increase of 6.4% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the index rose 5.2%, compared to a 5% rise in the last quarter of 2021. Although this is backwards-looking data, it is still closely watched as it confirms the ongoing pressure on prices.

Technology

Symbotic benefits from high wages and labour shortages

Symbotic, a warehouse robotics company backed by SoftBank, went public through a SPAC deal earlier in June. The share price jumped 120% by the end of the first day of trading on Nasdaq giving the company a valuation ...

Symbotic benefits from high wages and labour shortages

Could Elon Musk’s involvement with Twitter affect Tesla?

A lot has happened since Elon Musk offered to take Twitter private for USD44bn. Tesla investors are worried the deal could bring a dark cloud on Tesla, at a time when the billionaire’s focus may be critical to ...

Could Elon Musk’s involvement with Twitter affect Tesla?

Alibaba tries its luck on the metaverse

Alibaba launched its first metaverse shopping centre at the end of May, just in time for China's 618 shopping festival, which officially started last Tuesday and will end on 18 June. 618 represents the 18th of June, ...

Alibaba tries its luck on the metaverse

Commodities

Are oil bulls capitulating?

The Federal Reserve is choosing to go after inflation even at the risk of tilting the economy into a recession, a move that is weighing on oil prices, the only asset still up more than 40% year-to-date (27/06/2022). ...

Are oil bulls capitulating?

Could gold have further room to run?

Gold prices started the year on a strong foot, along with oil prices outperforming all other asset classes in a turbulent market environment. However, six months later, there has been some mixed price action lately, ...

Could gold have further room to run?

Queen's Jubilee Platinum Price Outlook

For fans of the British Royal Family, it’s more than likely you’re aware of what’s special about the coming week. Brits will enjoy an extended bank holiday weekend and it’s the reason for this double-length break that is special; the Queen’s ...

Queen's Jubilee Platinum Price Outlook

Forex

Has the dollar finally topped?

The US Dollar has had a very busy year. Following an 11% rally off the initial lows in January, which saw the Dollar Index breaking out to multi-year highs, we then saw an almost 4% correction before the greenback found fresh demand and rallied a ...

Has the dollar finally topped?

The story for the Swissie

Professional forecasters and central banks have been surprised by the persistence of rising prices, with the latter rapidly shifting their forward guidance. The Swiss National Bank has just announced a policy ...

The story for the Swissie

A new EU/UK trade spat could send GBPUSD under 1.20

The British Pound has fallen more than 10% against the US Dollar this year, weighed down by Fed hawkishness, domestic inflation and growth concerns, Brexit-related difficulties and the fallout from the conflict in Ukraine. 

A new EU/UK trade spat could send GBPUSD under 1.20

Bonds

“TINA is dead.” Or not.

The stock market had an epic run after the 2008-09 financial crisis, thanks in part to rock-bottom interest rates, which encouraged investors to pile into equities as “There Is No Alternative” (TINA). Now that the Fed ...

“TINA is dead.” Or not.

Positive real rates, the latest headwind for stocks?

US inflation-adjusted bond yields are about to turn positive for the first time since March 2020 in a surge that is adding further pressure on rate-sensitive corners of financial markets. What are the implications for ...

Positive real rates, the latest headwind for stocks?

Looking for a haven with yield in China bonds

After a strong year, Chinese government bonds remain an area of interest for investors seeking yields that go some way to offset inflation as well as a haven from the war in Ukraine.

Looking for a haven with yield in China bonds
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LiveWire

2 days ago

#Eurozone's Manufacturing #PMI lowest since Oct 2020 #trading

SToxx50 is paring early session losses this morning after hitting this year's lows. The rebound could be short-lived as sentiment is depressed. Eurozone's manufacturing PMI data for June came in at 52.1, the lowest reading since October 2020. 

3 days ago

Fed's PCE softer than estimates #inflation #trading

Equity indices spiked after softer inflation data. Inflation in the US, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, stayed unchanged at 6.3% on a yearly basis in May. The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, declined to 4.7% in the same period from 4.9% in April. This print came in softer than expected (4.8%) and is the third favorable inflation reading in the last week.

3 days ago

#Bitcoin falls below USD19'000 #crypto 3 trading

Bitcoin is on track for its worst quarter in more than a decade, as more hawkish central banks and a string of high-profile crypto blowups hammer sentiment.