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Swiss retail sales in May disappointed strongly coming in at -3.7% versus expectations of -1.4%, suggesting Swiss consumption is much softer than previously thought. This is the weakest number since a year ago when retail sales also fell before rebounding in the summer month. Today's data gave a reason for traders to ditch the Swiss franc, which continued to weaken against the dollar. The next leg higher could take the USD/CHF to around 0.94. This is consistent with our trade idea, in which we wrote about in yesterday's weekly forex ideas.

The Swiss franc is proving to be very strong in light of the rush to safety because of the macro uncertainty and overall bearish sentiment as many expect a recession to unfold in the US later this year. But what is remarkable is that the dollar has weakened meaningfully versus the Swiss franc, all while raising interest rates aggressively. And looking at the 2 year US Treasury, it suggests that investor sentiment has pulled down the dollar, perhaps asking now for some level of mean reversal, for the USDCHF to revert higher. 

WTI Crude Oil gained 2.3% Monday after it gained momentum following the strong US jobs report, which beat expectations and strengthened the soft landing case for the US economy. Traders stepped in to buy the dip. 

The busiest week of earnings season for the S&P 500 saw nearly twice as many positive guidance announcements as negative. After trending lower since late 2021, overall guidance is now moving higher. Source: Earnings Whispers

JPM’s latest investor survey shows many investors believe S&P 500 will fall double-digit. Only 32% or so believe it will stay around here or fall just a bit.