306 days ago

S&P 500 Average #Earnings Beat $SPY $QQQ #trading #bears #bulls

The earnings season is doing much better than expected, particularly for companies with pricing power muscle. Bulls have won, but they will need to perhaps caution as valuation are now overall expensive. ⚠️ "price is what you pay, value is what you get". Also, a word of caution, as so far it's earnings, not revenues, which are putting in the impressive beats. Per Bloomberg, "What is more striking is that the average earnings beat has jumped to 7%, really a 2021 type level beat and among the highest beat levels in the recent years." Source: Bloomberg

#Stocks #Macro

347 days ago

Fed fund futures are pricing cuts as soon as June! #trading $SPY $QQQ

Fed fund futures are pricing cuts as soon as June. The question for the Fed is when do they start cutting interest rates, or at least according to futures. The chart is from Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowicz).

#Stocks #Macro

360 days ago

Hiring on LinkedIn plunges #macro #markets #stocks #investing $SPY

The LinkedIn hiring rate is a measure of hires divided by LinkedIn membership. The US LHR was down 6.5% month over month seasonally adjusted, its biggest 1 month decline since 2020 ! Hiring is now down 30.8% from April 2022 (when declines began), and 27.9% year over year. Source: Guy Berger - Chief Economist at LinkedIn


382 days ago

US #CPI surprises slightly up $spy $qqq #inflation #trading

Core CPI came slightly higher than forecast at 5.6% YoY versus 5.5% expected. Nonetheless, month-over-month it met expectations at 0.4%. Energy prices will continue to be a major focus. The war on inflation is certainly not over, and markets still need to digest the significantly higher interest rates than last year. 
Markets may again feel some anxiety as we near another key inflation data, the PCE, on Friday, February 24th. And the most important element in driving stocks remains the Fed and the yield curve. And Treasury yields are significantly higher than last year and are likely to keep a lid on valuation multiples.

#Stocks #Forex #Macro

401 days ago

#Stocks slightly lower following US #GDP numbers #economy #trading

Stocks are seeing selling pressure after the release of the USD GDP report, which came in at 2.9% QoQ and stronger-than-expected, reflecting the strength behind the consumer appetite. But this also highlights the difficult decision the Fed will have to make to continue to keep rates higher for longer to cool down growth in order to avoid losing control over inflation.   

#Stocks #Macro